Ukraine and the Dangers of Wartime Elections

The Looming Danger of Wartime Elections in Ukraine

In March 2025, the BBC reported that President Volodymyr Zelensky had ordered his team to begin preparations for elections if a true ceasefire could be secured.

By April, The Economist confirmed that Ukraine’s leadership was tentatively planning for this contingency — even under the immense shadow of a hostile Russia and uncertain Western backing.

At first glance, the idea of elections sounds like a return to normalcy.

In reality, the risks are profound — not just for Ukraine’s democracy, but for its survival.

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1. Elections Under Threat: Russia’s Strategic Objective

Russia’s long-term strategy has always involved subverting Ukraine from within, not just conquering it militarily.

Before 2014, Moscow openly supported pro-Russian politicians like Viktor Yanukovych, engineering electoral victories through disinformation, intimidation, and corruption.

A Ukrainian election during a ceasefire would present Russia with a golden opportunity:

Launch massive disinformation campaigns.

Conduct cyberattacks against electoral infrastructure.

Organize targeted political violence to intimidate voters or discredit the process.

Push propaganda efforts to portray the election as illegitimate, no matter the result.

As seen in past elections across Europe and the U.S., Russia has mastered the tools of hybrid warfare — cyber interference, proxy media, social media bots, and economic pressure.

Even the act of holding an election would become an open battlefield.

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2. A Ceasefire is Not Safety

Even if a ceasefire is agreed upon, it would be fragile and easily violated.

Russia has a documented history of breaking ceasefires in:

Chechnya (1990s)

Georgia (2008)

Donbas (since 2014)

Polling stations, public rallies, and electoral gatherings would become easy targets for provocations, attacks, or staged incidents designed to sow chaos.

A "peaceful election" during an active conflict is a dangerously optimistic assumption.

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3. Domestic U.S. Politics: A No-Win Situation for Zelensky

Beyond Russian threats, U.S. domestic politics now represents another battlefield.

The MAGA wing of the Republican Party has spent months accusing Zelensky of:

Being a "dictator" for not holding elections during wartime.

Dragging out the war for personal gain.

Misusing international support.

Key facts: Zelensky asked Parliament to approve elections; it was Parliament that refused, citing security concerns.

Yet MAGA-aligned figures continue portraying Zelensky as illegitimate.

If Zelensky wins an election now:

MAGA-aligned media and politicians will likely claim the election was rigged.

Russia will amplify those claims internationally.

Trump and other isolationists would use these narratives to justify cutting Ukraine loose diplomatically and financially.

Even a free, fair, internationally monitored election could be spun into a political weapon against Ukraine.

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4. Zelensky’s Dilemma: No Good Options

If he delays elections: He risks accusations of dictatorship and eroding legitimacy.

If he holds elections: He exposes Ukraine to destabilization, both internally and externally.

Without robust EU support, external election monitors, and security guarantees, Zelensky faces a lose-lose scenario.

Even a decisive win would not guarantee international political backing if powerful factions are determined to call the results illegitimate.

As political scientist Michael McFaul warns:

> "Democratic elections are not magic wands. Without security and stability, elections can themselves become weapons of chaos."

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Conclusion: A Sword Over Democracy

Ukraine is attempting to do something few nations have ever achieved: conduct free elections under the shadow of an active enemy, hybrid warfare, and a wavering international alliance.

History suggests the dangers are immense.

Without significant external support and protection, Zelensky — and Ukrainian democracy itself — could be cornered into a no-win situation.

> Peace without security is a trap.

Elections without stability are a battlefield.

The world should be paying much closer attention.

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Sources:

BBC News, Ukraine plans elections if ceasefire achieved, March 2025.

The Economist, Zelensky prepares Ukraine for potential wartime vote, April 2025.

Atlantic Council, McFaul commentary on wartime elections, 2023.

RAND Corporation, Hybrid Warfare and Electoral Disruption, 2022.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Democracy Under Siege: Lessons from Conflict Zones, 2024.